A former Marine commander of all U.S. troops in Afghanistan warned a Washington, D.C. crowd this week that a rigid timeline for U.S. withdrawal might plunge Afghanistan back to a pre-9/11 reality.
Speaking Wednesday at a screening for the new documentary film "The Hornet's Nest" sponsored by the Center for a New American Security, retired Gen. John Allen said the U.S. needed to "buy time" for the Afghans to establish their newly elected presidential administration and build more stability into their fighting forces. Allen, who retired in early 2013 and now serves as a distinguished fellow in Foreign Policy for the Brookings Institution, is expected to be tapped to coordinate the international effort to fight the Islamic State extremist group in Iraq, according to Associated Press reports.
President Barack Obama in May announced his plan to keep nearly 10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan following the designated conclusion of combat operations at the end of this year. The plan calls for half of those troops to leave at the end of 2015, and most of the remaining troops, stationed at a few population centers, to withdraw at the end of the following year. The number is not far from the post-2014 "bridging force" of 13,600 that Allen recommended last year; but Obama's timeline lacked sufficient flexibility, he said.
"I think [that timeline is] too short," Allen said. "These young Afghan troops, the whole concept of an Afghan army is new. And they need time to transition properly."
Speaking to Marine Corps Times after the event, Allen said the emergence of a new Afghan president — expected to be candidate Ashraf Gani, though several loud accusations of fraud have prevented the results from being certified — presented a "great opportunity" to start a new kind of relationship with Afghanistan, provided Obama infused more flexibility into the pullout strategy.
The new Afghan president should have the opportunity to appeal to extend current troop levels, Allen said.
"I think it's a reasonable request," he said. "I think now is the moment for us to inject a partnership between the two presidents that can bring us largely to a decision that's conditions-based, not time-based. Because [Obama], frankly, had no partner when he made the decision."
The Afghan economy, distorted by war spending, was also several years from achieving post-war stability, he said.
"Before he ran for president, [Gani] said he thought that economy was only going to begin becoming truly recognizable by 2016, 2017," Allen said. "So we've got to have the strong security platform to provide the opportunity for that economy ultimately to begin to take shape and take form."
The alternative to a conditions-based withdrawal, Allen said, was dire.
"If we leave too early and the Afghan security forces collapse, there is no future that is imaginable except a return to where we were on the 10th of Sept., 2001, which is nowhere," he said.
