Several congressional incumbents with key defense and veterans policy leadership positions could be ousted next week when voters head to the polls Tuesday. Here are three of the biggest races advocates are monitoring and the impact they could have on critical legislation for troops and veterans next year:
Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.
Tester’s reelection bid is one of the most closely watched races in the country because it could decide which party controls the Senate in 2025.
Democratic Party members currently have a one-seat advantage in the Senate but are expected to lose at least one spot due to the retirement of West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin. If Tester loses, it could swing the majority to Republicans.
Recent polls have shown the 68-year-old incumbent trailing his Republican opponent, former Army Ranger Tim Sheehy. Tester, who has served in the Senate since 2007, had considered retirement before opting to run again this cycle.
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Tester serves as both the chairman of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee and chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee’s panel on defense issues. In both posts, he has been a top voice on military and veterans funding issues and was a prominent figure in advancing the sweeping PACT Act two years ago.
His departure would have significant ripple effects throughout the Senate Democratic caucus, given his committee roles and position as a moderate leader within the party.
Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif.
In 2022, Calvert won his reelection bid over Democrat Will Rollins by fewer than 11,000 votes, less than 5% of the total ballots cast in the race. The two will square off again this November, with polling showing an equally tight contest.
Redistricting by state officials for California’s 41st congressional district left Calvert with a less favorable election map two years ago than in his previous 14 election bids. Before 2022, Calvert — the longest-serving Republican member of California’s congressional delegation — had won each of his campaigns over the last decade by sizable margins.
Calvert serves as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee’s defense panel, leading debate on Defense Department funding issues. In recent years, that has included a number of social policy changes tacked onto spending bills, much to the chagrin of Democratic critics.
If he loses this cycle, it would not only mean the removal of his voice from Republican military budget debates, but it could also mean the end of the GOP majority in the House. Democratic candidates need only to pick up five seats in the chamber to gain a majority for 2025.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.
Bacon is a four-term congressman with a reputation for bipartisanship and a military background. He served for 29 years in the Air Force, including a deployment to Iraq in 2007.
As a member of the House Armed Services Committee, he was tapped last year with leading the panel’s service member quality of life improvement efforts. That culminated in a lengthy report released earlier this year which called for better pay for junior troops and better support services for military families.
Some of those reforms were included in still-pending legislation before Congress this session. But other proposals are expected to be rolled into the annual defense authorization bill debate next spring.
Whether Bacon will be there to lead that debate remains to be seen. Polls have shown a close contest between him and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas. Similar to Calvert’s race, Bacon’s contest is seen as a critical win for Republicans if they hope to hold onto their majority in the House next year.
Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.
