WASHINGTON – North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un's recent 40-day disappearance from public view sparked speculation of a coup or serious illness, but U.S. military officials were never convinced he was out of power, the commander of US forces in South Korea told reporters today.
"We didn't see any discernible change that led us to believe there was an instability while he was gone," said Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. Forces Korea at a Pentagon press conference. "What we can understand looked like very normal functioning of their government."
Kim reemerged Oct. 14, walking with a cane at a public appearance. U.S. officials are unsure what the health issue is, but Scaparrotti said Kim is clearly in control of the country, touring construction sites and keeping a schedule as brisk as it had been before Kim vanished.
The remarks came as the U.S. and South Korea announced this week that they would delay transferring wartime operational control of allied forces by taking on a "conditions-based" approach and scrapping the previously set deadline of 2015. The new target is 2025.
North Korea has of late stepped up its no-notice ballistic missile testing and carried out its third nuclear test last year, underscoring the need for the US-South Korea alliance, Scaparrotti said.
North Korea has "several hundred ballistic missiles, one of the world's largest chemical weapons stockpiles, a biological weapons research program and the world's largest special operations force, as well as an active cyber warfare capability," Scaparrotti said.
Asked whether North Korea has the key technologies integral to a nuclear weapon — a launcher, an intermediate- to long-range missile and a miniaturized warhead — Scaparrotti said he believes North Korea has the technological know-how, but he does not know for sure if there is a working nuclear missile.
"I think they certainly have had the right expertise in the past, they have the right connections, so I believe they have the capability to have miniaturized a device at this point, and they have the capability to deliver what they say they have," he said. "I have not seen it tested, and I don't think as a commander, I can afford the luxury of believing they haven't gotten there."
Because the U.S. has not seen a missile tested, Scaparrotti said, its effectiveness — if it exists — would be, "pretty darn low."
In recent years, North Korea launched a long-range rocket into space and displayed at a military parade its road-mobile KN-08 missile, which some experts have called a mock-up.
North Korea is at least seeking medium and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Already, Scaparrotti said, it has close and short-range missiles they they have tested, and it has stressed more realistic training of his rocket forces, which has led to more frequent missile launches.
Though Kim has toned down his rhetoric since assuming power in 2012 and reached out to other countries, North Korea has been more provocative and aggressive along the demilitarized zone and elsewhere, Scaparrotti said.
The transfer of operational control from the U.S. to the Republic of Korea, hinges on the RoK attaining core military capabilities necessary for it to assume the lead of combined U.S. and Korean forces. The precise structure is in discussions, but a Korean four-star would lead over a U.S. four-star as deputy in the the as-yet-unnamed combined organization.
Under the agreement, the US-led Combined Forces Command, will retain its command-and-control forces in Seoul. The 210th Field Artillery Brigade will remain north of the Han River, until South Korea can field a comparable force.
South Korea's military is making progress, Scaparrotti said. Its plans to purchase the Apache AH-64E, by Boeing, and the remotely piloted Global Hawk surveillance vehicle, made by Northrop Grumman, remain on track. It has also launched a command-and-control infrastructure for its missile defense that is interoperable with like U.S. systems.
"Those are critical steps, but others that take time and money will take longer," Scaparrotti said.
Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He had previously served as Congress reporter.
